Climate change poses a threat to food producers, manufacturers, processors, and consumers. With dwindling resources subject to dire stress and the uncontrolled population boom on the side, climate change puts food supply and security at grave risk. The resultant food scarcity could bring about several social, economic, and political shifts across the globe. 

Here we will observe the trends so far, the relation between the two across multiple factors, and predict what we can expect in the years to come.

Global Climate Change Trends and Action Plan So Far

Climate change is a culmination of various anthropomorphic activities taking place over a span of decades. To support this fact, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in its Fifth Assessment Report (2013) stated that it is 95% probable that human activities in the last five decades have warmed the planet.

Here’s what we have seen so far:

• The Stanford Research Institute (SRI), in a report titled “Sources, Abundance, and Fate of Gaseous Atmospheric Pollutants,” was the first to raise the alarms surrounding climate change in 1968-70.
• In 1975, the term “global warming” made an appearance in a peer-reviewed academic journal.
• The First World Climate Conference of 1979 invoked governments to recognize climate change as a major threat and to take action against it.
• After 1987 turning out to be the warmest year, the United Nations set up the IPCC in 1988 to analyze global climate change trends. Countries met to discuss how they can reduce their emissions.
• As a result of global negotiations, 154 nations attended the Earth Summit (1992) in Rio de Janeiro and signed the Climate Change Convention.
• The Climate Change Convention met in 1995 and 1996, wherein developed countries committed to cutting down their emissions to mitigate global warming.
• 1997 to 2004 saw the countries deliberating the Kyoto Protocol that was made against global warming and emission reduction legally binding. The Kyoto Protocol came into force on 16 February 2005.
• The polar bears feature in the endangered species list, and Antarctica becomes a global concern as the continent displays the fastest rate of deterioration.
• 196 countries met under the auspices of the UNFCC to sign the historic Paris Agreement in 2016, making it the first legally binding international treaty to tackle climate change.
• The El Nino caused 2016 to be the hottest year on record, with 2019 a close second. 2010-2019 officially became the warmest decade.

Industries Impacted by Climate Change

As stated previously, climate change is not an isolated event and shall have social, political, and economic ramifications across industries. Climate change, be it in the form of extreme weather conditions or rising sea levels, will impact human health, critical infrastructure, and overall productivity.

Industries most vulnerable to climate change include:

• Agriculture
• Insurance
• Energy
• Fishing
• Tourism
• Housing and Infrastructure
• Health
• Financial markets and business

How is Climate Change Affecting Food Production?

Amongst the various industries affected by climate change, disruptions in agriculture and food supply are of primary concern. In the current scenario, climate change is impacting food production in the following ways:

Extreme Weather Conditions Damaging Crops

Nearly 80% of farmers rely on rain to irrigate their crops – a methodology that is highly erratic. An increase in surface temperature can also cause heavy precipitation, which will result in flash floods, water clogging, and tropical storms, causing crop failure. Similarly, natural calamities, such as storms, hurricanes, droughts, landslides, etc., are notorious for destroying farm holdings and standing crops or causing widespread erosion. 

Such weather extremities and uncertainty in localized or large geographic regions are wreaking havoc in food production.

Water Scarcity in Major Crop Producing Regions.

Apart from rainfed holdings, farms also depend on groundwater as a water source. However, groundwater is a non-renewable source considering that aquifers are draining at a rate faster than they are refilling. 

Hence, global crop-producing regions, such as India, Pakistan, northeastern China, Iran, Iraq, and even the great plains of the US, that depend on groundwater, are experiencing severe water scarcity. As a result, the production of crops like rice, which have been a staple, is under immense strain.

Erratic Cropping Patterns and Seasons

An increase in global temperatures and higher CO2 concentration may make it favorable to produce certain crops, like potatoes, over others. Hence, it may become virtually impossible for farmers to raise other traditional or indigenous crops in such conditions. To replicate ideal cropping climates for such plants, farmers may have to shift to higher altitudes – a move that puts them in low fertility areas, which will pose additional problems. 

Similarly, weather and climate uncertainty will also give rise to shifting cropping seasons, with longer growing seasons that also increase vulnerability to disease and pests. Therefore, there may be a predominance of certain crops over others as cropping patterns and seasons get thrown off schedule.

Natural Calamities Arising Out of Climate Change

It has been established so far that climate change affects weather conditions and their corresponding intensity. Scientists have been successful in linking climate change to natural calamities such as hurricanes, droughts, forest fires, heatwaves, and more. These calamities not only impact food production but also introduces bottlenecks in the food supply chain.

The Way Ahead for the Fertilizer Industry

The global climate change situation has put the fertilizer industry in a paradoxical situation. Fertilizer production is a significant contributor to greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and at the same time, it also the most reliable remediation for offsetting crop failure and ensuring food security. Moreover, nutrient-rich soil improved through inputs can hold larger carbon reserves over nutritionally stripped soil. 

Hence, it can be established that the emissions by the industry are marginal in comparison to the stimulus in farm outputs. As such, sustainable or eco-friendly manufacturing of fertilizer could indeed introduce food security despite the increasing threat of climate change.

Moving Forward

Climate change calls for a multi-disciplinary, pan-industrial, and inter-governmental approach to address the issue. At this stage, the world needs to rise above petty politics and personal greed to come together as one. Every individual can contribute to averting and mitigating the effects of climate change on food production and supply. Thus, the power to bring a positive change lies with us.